Restore Seagrass Ecosystems
Seaweed (also called macroalgae) ecosystem restoration involves the reestablishment of wild red, brown, and green seaweed through interventions that recover degraded, damaged, or destroyed seaweed ecosystems. Healthy seaweed ecosystems remove CO₂ from the water column and convert it into biomass through photosynthesis, allowing additional CO₂ to be taken up in the ocean from the atmosphere. Some of this biomass carbon ends up sequestered, either on-site in sediment or off-site in the deep sea or at the seafloor. Advantages include the widespread human and environmental benefits associated with restored, healthy seaweed ecosystems. Disadvantages include its unclear effectiveness and climate impact, as well as its potentially high costs and difficulty of adoption at scale. Currently, we conclude that we should “Keep Watching” this solution.
Based on our analysis, the climate impact of restoring seaweed ecosystems is unclear but likely to be low. While restoration offers important ecological benefits, its effectiveness in removing carbon is understudied, and the implementation costs may be prohibitively high, but require further research. Therefore, we conclude that Restore Seaweed Ecosystems is a solution to “Keep Watching.”
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | Yes |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | No |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | ? |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | ? |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | No |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | No |
Seaweed ecosystem restoration is the deliberate action of reestablishing seaweed in degraded, damaged, or destroyed ecosystems. Seaweed removes CO₂ from seawater through photosynthesis, which allows the ocean to absorb additional CO₂ from the atmosphere. Some of the fixed carbon can be sequestered through export to the deep sea or burial at the seafloor, while a portion may also persist as carbon forms that resist degradation even in the surface ocean. Restoration of seaweed ecosystems helps restore biomass and therefore the productivity of these ecosystems, which can enhance their sequestration capacity. Restoration can occur in a number of ways, but commonly includes transplanting adults, controlling grazers, building artificial reefs, seeding with propagules or spores, remediating pollution, removing competitive species, and culturing. Most restoration efforts have focused on canopy-forming species, such as giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera).
Seaweed ecosystem restoration can be somewhat effective, with nearly 60% of restoration efforts achieving survival rates of over 50%. The first large-scale restoration is thought to have occurred in Japan in the late 1800s. Still, few projects have been implemented at scale, with most restoration efforts below 0.1 ha in size. Moreover, little data exist to evaluate the effectiveness of restored seaweed ecosystems at removing carbon. While theoretically, they should regain functional equivalence to intact systems, this requires further research. The extent of lost and degraded seaweed ecosystems is also poorly understood, making it unclear how restoration efforts might be scaled globally. Additionally, the air-to-sea transfer of CO₂ to replace the CO₂ taken up by photosynthesis in the ocean is not always efficient, meaning removal in the water column may not always translate to equivalent atmospheric CO₂ removal. However, this aspect of effectiveness also remains understudied. Consequently, the climate impact of restoration is uncertain.
Healthy seaweed ecosystems provide a range of ecological benefits. Seaweed can help buffer against ocean acidification in some places as functional systems better regulate pH. These systems also provide complex habitats that support a wide range of marine life, such as fish and invertebrates, so restoring seaweed ecosystems can help recover biodiversity. Seaweed ecosystem restoration can also improve nutrient cycling and overall ecosystem resilience to climate stressors.
Restoration of seaweed ecosystems is currently expensive, with costs varying widely depending on the method used. In kelp forests, chemical or manual urchin removal, which reduces grazing pressure, may cost between US$1,700/ha and US$76,000/ha in 2023 dollars, while most other approaches exceed US$590,000/ha.
It’s also unclear whether seaweed restoration efforts could scale enough to have a globally meaningful impact on GHG emissions. Using estimates from intact subtidal brown seaweed ecosystems, which are among the most productive and represent a likely upper limit on the effectiveness of seaweed restoration as a whole, restoration might remove 2.3 tCO₂‑eq
/ha/yr. At this rate, over 40 Mha would need to be restored to exceed 0.1 GtCO₂‑eq/yr.
However, most restoration projects are under 0.1 ha. For kelp forests, only roughly 2% (19,000 ha) have been restored out of the Kelp Forest Challenge’s target of 1 million ha by 2040, suggesting that this practice may not be scalable currently.
The effectiveness of restoration can also be offset by the life-cycle emissions of products required to re-establish some seaweed ecosystems. For example, emissions from the production of cement blocks needed to afforest some seaweed habitats have been estimated to potentially delay carbon removal benefits for 5–13 years in some systems.
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Carlot, J. (2025). Restoring coastal resilience: The role of macroalgal forests in oxygen production and pH regulation. Journal of Phycology, 61(2), 255–257. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1111/jpy.70019
Danovaro, R., Aronson, J., Bianchelli, S., Boström, C., Chen, W., Cimino, R., Corinaldesi, C., Cortina-Segarra, J., D’Ambrosio, P., Gambi, C., Garrabou, J., Giorgetti, A., Grehan, A., Hannachi, A., Mangialajo, L., Morato, T., Orfanidis, S., Papadopoulou, N., Ramirez-Llodra, E., Smith, C. J., Snelgrove, P., van de Koppel, J., van Tatenhove, J., & Fraschetti, S. (2025). Assessing the success of marine ecosystem restoration using meta-analysis. Nature Communications, 16(1), Article 3062. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57254-2
Eger, A. M., Vergés, A., Choi, C. G., Christie, H., Coleman, M. A., Fagerli, C. W., Fujita, D., Hasegawa, M., Kim, J. H., Mayer-Pinto, M., Reed, D. C., Steinberg, P. D., & Marzinelli, E. M.(2020). Financial and institutional support are important for large-scale kelp forest restoration. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 535277. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.535277
Eger, A. M., Marzinelli, E. M., Christie, H., Fagerli, C. W., Fujita, D., Gonzalez, A. P., Johnson, C., Ling, S. D., Mayer-Pinto, M., Norderhaug, K. M., Pérez-Matus, A., Reed, D. C., Sala, E., Steinberg, P. D., Wernberg, T., Wilson, S., & Vergés, A. (2022). Global kelp forest restoration: Past lessons, present status, and future directions. Biological Reviews, 97(4), 1449-1475. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12850
Eger, A. M., Baum, J. K., Campbell, T., Cevallos Gil, B., Earp, H. S., Falace, A., Freiwald, J., Hamilton, S., Lonhart, S. I., Rootsaert, K., Rush, M. Å., Schuster, J., Timmer, B., & Vergés, A. (2026). Creating a global kelp forest conservation fundraising target: A 14-billion-dollar investment to help the kelp. Biological Conservation, 313. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111573
Filbee-Dexter, K., Wernberg, T., Barreiro, R., Coleman, M. A., de Bettignies, T., Feehan, C. J., Franco, J. N., Hasler, B., Louro, I., Norderhaug, K. M., Staehr, P. A. U., Tuya, F. & Verbeek, J. (2022). Leveraging the blue economy to transform marine forest restoration. Journal of Phycology, 58(2), 198–207. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1111/jpy.13239
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Restore Salt Marsh Ecosystems involves actively reestablishing salt marshes in areas where they were previously lost to conversion or other disturbance, allowing vegetation to regrow and carbon to accumulate in biomass and sediments. Advantages include salt marshes’ ability to durably store substantial quantities of carbon over long time periods and their numerous co-benefits for the environment and humans. Disadvantages include variable but potentially low effectiveness due to site-to-site differences in carbon removal rates and potential emissions of other GHGs, such as methane and nitrous oxide, as well as costs that might exceed US$500/t CO₂‑eq in some areas. Salt marsh restoration is not expected to have a globally meaningful climate impact (>0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr ), primarily because the adoption ceiling is constrained by the limited area available for restoration, but there are no major environmental risks associated with the solution. Therefore, Restore Salt Marsh Ecosystems is “Worthwhile.”
Based on our analysis, restoring salt marsh ecosystems is a “Worthwhile” carbon removal technique that is ready for large-scale deployment. While the capacity for adoption is limited, limiting climate impact, this solution has no major risks and provides widespread added benefits for people and the environment.
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | Yes |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | Yes |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | Yes |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | No |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | No |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | Yes |
Restore Salt Marsh Ecosystems removes carbon from the air by reestablishing salt marshes in areas where they were previously drained, filled, or otherwise degraded and lost. As plants take up CO₂ through photosynthesis and vegetation traps sediments, some of this carbon is stored long term in waterlogged soils with slow decomposition rates. Restoration typically reconnects land to tidal exchange and rebuilds marsh elevation and vegetation, which promotes plant growth and sediment accumulation. Active restoration can include breaching levees or removing barriers to restore tidal flow, regrading or adding sediment to raise elevations, planting native marsh vegetation, and controlling invasive species. In many cases, restoration can also reduce GHG emissions by replacing land uses, such as drained agriculture, that emit CO₂.
The fundamental idea of restoring salt marsh ecosystems is scientifically sound, and, on average globally, restored salt marshes have been shown to remove carbon over long timescales through vegetation recovery and sustained carbon burial in waterlogged soils, even after accounting for methane and nitrous oxide emissions. This solution has been in practice worldwide for many decades, and global assessments suggest it could expand to roughly 2 million hectares because ~67% of salt marshes have been destroyed since the early 1900s. Restoration success rates are high relative to those of many other marine habitats. However, its potential adoption ceiling is still low relative to other nature-based solutions (e.g., Restore Forests) because restoration is limited to suitable coastal areas, which are constrained by coastal development and other human stressors. As a result, its climate impact is likely well below 0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq /year.
Restoration of salt marsh ecosystems is a well-established, scalable practice with many benefits for the environment. Restored salt marshes can reduce shoreline erosion and costal flooding, improve water quality by retaining nutrients and sediments, and provide habitat for fish and birds. While global impact is limited, this intervention can be an important multi-benefit tool for building climate resilience and removing carbon in some countries and coastal regions. Restoration is already widely implemented. In some restorations, such as those that reestablish tidal exchange in previously impounded ecosystems, increases in salinity can reduce methane and nitrous oxide production relative to pre-restoration conditions.
The climate impact of salt marsh restoration is constrained by its limited adoption ceiling, variable but potentially high costs, vulnerability to future loss, and potentially low effectiveness. Adoption is limited by where marshes can actually be restored, such as on low-elevation coastal lands that are not heavily developed, and where they can be maintained into the future with climate change stressors, such as sea-level rise. If salt marshes are not restored with consideration of projected sea level rise, loss or conversion to mud flats or open water habitats in the future is possible, which would result in the loss of carbon benefits. Restored salt marshes can also emit potent GHGs such as methane and nitrous oxide as low oxygen conditions and ecosystem function are reestablished, which can offset some of the climate benefits of restoration. As a result, costs vary widely by site, and can exceed US$500/t CO₂‑eq (~US$1,000–7,000/ha), depending on site-specific effectiveness rates. Additionally, few data are available for understanding long-term, multi-decadal changes in carbon accumulation rates in restored sites, and some regions remain underrepresented globally.
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Convention on Wetlands. (2025). Global Wetland Outlook 2025: Valuing, conserving, restoring and financing wetlands (Scientific and Technical Review Panel report). Secretariat of the Convention on Wetlands. Link to source: https://www.ramsar.org/launch-global-wetland-outlook-2025
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Holmquist, J. R., Eagle, M., Molinari, R. L., Nick, S. K., Stachowicz, L. C., & Kroeger, K. D. (2023). Mapping methane reduction potential of tidal wetland restoration in the United States. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 353. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00988-y
Mason, V. G., Burden, A., Epstein, G., Jupe, L. L., Wood, K. A., & Skov, M. W. (2024). Navigating research challenges to estimate blue carbon benefits from saltmarsh restoration. Global Change Biology, 30(10), 1–3. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17526
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Reilly, A. V., Merrill, N. H., Mulvaney, K. K., Colarusso, P., & Burman, E. (2024). Fantastic wetlands and why to monitor them: Demonstrating the social and financial benefit potential of methane abatement through salt marsh restoration. PLOS Climate, 3(7), e0000317. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000317
Rolando, J., Hodges, M., Garcia, K., Krueger, G., Williams, N., Carr Jr, J., Robinson, J., George, A., Morris, J. and Kostka, J., (2023). Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events. Ecosphere, 14(4), e4467. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4467
Rowland, P. I., Wartman, M., Bursic, J., & Carnell, P. (2024). Restored and created tidal marshes recover ecosystem services over time. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 24, Article 100539. Link to source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2024.100539
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Christina Richardson, Ph.D.
Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Paul West, Ph.D.
Grassland and savanna restoration removes CO₂ from the atmosphere through photosynthesis as the ecosystem regrows, storing carbon in soils and vegetation. Grassland and savanna restoration faces relatively low barriers to implementation, provides substantial benefits for biodiversity, and may be deployable on large land areas. However, we currently lack sufficient information to assess whether the climate impact of grassland and savanna restoration falls above or below our threshold of globally meaningful carbon removal (>0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr ), given limited data on the magnitude of its effectiveness and adoption potential. Therefore, we conclude that Restoring Grasslands and Savannas is “Worthwhile,” and will reassess the climate impact of this solution as further research is done.
Based on our analysis, grassland and savanna restoration is a promising climate solution, but there is insufficient evidence to ascertain how much carbon it could remove at the global scale. Restoring Grasslands and Savannas is therefore “Worthwhile.”
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | Yes |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | Limited |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | Yes |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | ? |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | No |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | Yes |
Restoring grasslands and savannas removes carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis and stores it in soils and vegetation. Grassland and savanna restoration includes a spectrum of practices, such as returning ecologically appropriate grazing and fire regimes, reseeding with native species, and controlling invasive and woody plants.
Because grasslands and savannas are diverse, widespread ecosystems spanning a large climatic range, appropriate restoration and management strategies vary depending on the type of degradation and the natural history of the area. For this solution, we considered only degraded areas that were historically grassland and savanna and are not currently used as croplands or grazing lands. Other Project Drawdown solutions, including Deploy Silvopasture, Reduce Grazing Intensity, and Deploy Alternative Grazing, address increasing carbon removal in grasslands managed for grazing. Protect Grasslands & Savannas addresses protecting existing carbon stocks by reducing ongoing ecosystem degradation.
Grassland and savanna restoration will generally remove carbon when implemented with ecologically appropriate strategies on grasslands and savannas with depleted carbon stocks. Restoration efforts covering millions of hectares have already been initiated in some regions, though data tracking restoration progress are sparse. Although grassland and savanna restoration will remove carbon in principle, very little information is available to quantitatively assess the amount of carbon removed by restoration of degraded, ungrazed grasslands and savannas. One study in the United States found that planting diverse species on degraded grasslands increased total carbon uptake by up to 178% of that associated with natural succession over 22 years; however, the generalizability of this finding is unclear. Other studies focused on activities outside of the scope of this solution, such as changing grazing practices, restoring croplands to grasslands, planting legumes, and adding fertilizers, found an average increase in carbon uptake rates of ~1.7 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr with a range of 0.1–3.2 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr. These estimates may serve as a rough benchmark of the maximum per-hectare carbon removal that grassland restoration could achieve.
Grassland and savanna restoration may be an effective, low-risk strategy for sequestering carbon on hundreds of millions of hectares while also providing substantial benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. Grasslands and savannas are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering more than 2.8 billion hectares (see Protect Grasslands & Savannas) from the tropics to the tundra. Some studies estimate that roughly half of grasslands are degraded, suggesting that the opportunity for grassland and savanna restoration is in the range of hundreds of millions of hectares even after excluding grazed areas. Grasslands and savannas also play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, containing roughly 30% of the world’s soil carbon stock. Therefore, even small relative increases in grassland and savanna carbon stocks could translate into large absolute climate benefits. Because most grassland and savanna carbon is stored in below-ground biomass and soils, these carbon stocks can be more resilient to disturbance, such as fire, than carbon stored in above-ground biomass.
In addition to the potential climate benefits, healthy grasslands and savannas support diverse biological communities, regulate hydrology, improve water quality, reduce erosion, and provide pollination, cultural, and provisioning services to local communities.
While grassland and savanna restoration can consistently remove carbon, large uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the effectiveness and adoption potential of this solution.
First, most research on the carbon removal potential of grasslands and savannas focuses on improving grazing management or conversion of croplands back to grasslands, which are addressed in other Project Drawdown solutions and therefore outside of the scope of this solution. Effectiveness at removing carbon also depends on post-restoration management because many grasslands and savannas depend on establishment of ongoing, ecologically appropriate fire and grazing regimes. Additionally, climate change is reducing grassland and savanna productivity in many regions and may prohibit successful restoration in some places.
Second, the area of degraded, ungrazed grasslands and savannas that are restorable remains largely unknown. The definition of land degradation varies across studies, and maps of degraded lands are inconsistent with one another. While maps of grazing extent have improved, they are still uncertain. Thus, it is difficult to assess the adoption potential of this solution. Without sufficient data on effectiveness and adoption potential, we are ultimately unable to assess whether the climate impact of this solution falls above or below our threshold of 0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. We encourage additional research to alleviate data limitations related to grassland and savanna restoration.
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Avery Driscoll, Ph.D.
Christina Swanson, Ph.D.
Paul C. West, Ph.D.
Forest restoration is the process of returning previously forested land to a forested state. As forests regrow, they remove carbon from the atmosphere and sequester it in biomass.
We define forest restoration as planting new trees or allowing trees to naturally regrow on previously forested land that has been cleared. Through photosynthesis, forests take carbon from the atmosphere and store it in biomass. On net, forests currently take up an estimated 11.4–14.7 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Friedlingstein et al., 2023; Gibbs et al., 2025; Pan et al., 2024), equal to approximately 19–25% of total global anthropogenic GHG emissions (Dhakal et al., 2022). Restoring forests increases the size of the forest carbon sink, sequestering additional CO₂.
As commonly defined, restoration ranges from improving management of existing ecosystems, to re-establishing cleared ecosystems, to maintaining the health of functional ecosystems. Forest restoration includes activities such as exclusion of non-native grazing animals from a regenerating site, weed management, assisted seed dispersal, controlled burning, stand thinning, direct seeding, soil amendment, tree planting, and modification of topography or hydrology and other activities (Chazdon et al., 2024; Gann et al., 2022; Kübler & Günter 2024). While acknowledging that all restoration occurs along a spectrum of intervention intensity, we report effectiveness, cost, and adoption data for “low intensity” and “high intensity” restoration separately, with “low intensity” restoration including all interventions up to, but not including, tree planting, and “high intensity” restoration referring to direct seeding or seedling planting. To account for variability in carbon sequestration rates and area available for forest restoration, this analysis also evaluates forest restoration in boreal, temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions separately where possible.
Our definition of forest restoration is more limited than that used by many other sources. First, we only include reforestation of previously forested land with an element of direct human intervention, and therefore exclude entirely passive tree regrowth on abandoned land (i.e., unassisted natural regeneration) and afforestation of native grasslands and savannas. We also exclude areas currently used for crop production. To avoid double counting, we also do not include activities covered in other Project Drawdown solutions, including increasing carbon stocks in existing forests and establishing timber plantations, agroforestry, or silvopasture (see Improve Forest Management, Deploy Biomass Crops on Degraded Land, Deploy Agroforestry, and Deploy Silvopasture, respectively). Restoration of mangroves and forests on peat soils is also excluded, as this is covered in the Restore Coastal Wetlands and Restore Peatlands solutions. Because the scope of this solution is narrower than that of many other studies, the estimated impacts are correspondingly lower as well.
Intact and regenerating forests take up carbon, but human clearing of forests for logging, agriculture, and other activities emits carbon. Humans clear an estimated 15.5 Mha of forests annually, emitting ~7.4 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (2001–2024; Harris et al., 2021; Gibbs et al., 2025; Sims et al., 2025). Protecting existing forests reduces emissions from deforestation (see Protect Forests) and is an essential complement to forest restoration.
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Avery Driscoll, Ph.D.
Ruthie Burrows, Ph.D.
James Gerber, Ph.D.
Daniel Jasper
Alex Sweeney
James Gerber, Ph.D.
Megan Matthews, Ph.D.
Paul C. West, Ph.D.
We estimated that forest restoration can sequester 5.86–18.19 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr (Table 1), depending on the climate zone and type of intervention, as growing trees take up carbon through photosynthesis and store it in above- and below-ground biomass. Sequestration rates are highly variable globally; much of this variability is driven by climate, soil properties, forest type, and the type of restoration.
For this solution, we used modeled carbon sequestration rates from natural regeneration to represent low-intensity restoration (Robinson et al., 2025) and modeled carbon sequestration rates from plantation forests to represent high-intensity carbon restoration, which we define as initiatives that include tree planting (Bukoski et al., 2022; Busch et al., 2024). We calculated carbon sequestration rates at the climate zone level (boreal, temperate, subtropical, and tropical) across the potential extent for each reforestation type.
Generally, high-intensity restoration has higher sequestration rates (median values 12.02–18.19 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr) than low-intensity restoration (median values 5.86–17.06 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr). Median effectiveness is also higher in tropical areas, where forest growth often continues year-round, than it is in other climate zones. These estimates reflect average sequestration rates over the first 30 years of forest growth. Carbon sequestration rates are also influenced by non-climatic factors. For example, higher tree species diversity is often associated with higher forest carbon storage and uptake (Bialic-Murphy et al., 2024; Poorter et al., 2015; van der Sande et al., 2017).
Table 1. Effectiveness of forest restoration at sequestering carbon.
Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr, 100-yr basis
| Boreal | 5.86 |
| Temperate | 11.49 |
| Subtropical | 11.53 |
| Tropical | 17.06 |
Unit: t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr, 100-yr basis
| Boreal | 14.57 |
| Temperate | 12.74 |
| Subtropical | 12.02 |
| Tropical | 18.19 |
We estimated the median cost of low-intensity forest restoration at US$23/t CO₂‑eq (2023 US$) and the median cost of high-intensity forest restoration at US$83/t CO₂‑eq (Table 2). The value given in the dashboard above is the average of the low- and high-intensity cost estimates (US$53/t CO₂‑eq).
On a per-hectare basis, the estimated cost of low-intensity restoration ranges from US$213/ha (25th percentile) to US$739/ha (75th percentile), with a median cost of US$304/ha. The estimated cost of high-intensity restoration ranges from US$811/ha (25th percentile) to US$1,914/ha (75th percentile), with a median of US$1,348/ha. We derived these estimates from compilations of global restoration project cost data by Verhoeven et al. (2024) and Busch et al. (2024), supplemented with estimates from five additional publications, representing a total of 50 unique projects.
Estimates of restoration costs remain very uncertain, as data are scarce, costs and revenues are highly variable across geographies and projects, and costs are nonlinear, tending to increase under higher adoption scenarios (Austin et al., 2020; Schimetka et al., 2024). Moreover, the success of a project at establishing new forests drives the cost per metric ton of CO₂‑eq , but such success rates are rarely reported alongside costs. Because of data limitations, we did not separate cost estimates into climate zones.
Our estimates do not account for any new revenues associated with forest restoration, such as carbon credits or provisioning of timber and non-timber forest products (Adams et al. 2016; Ager et al., 2017; Busch et al., 2024). They also do not account for the economic value of ecosystem services, such as increased biodiversity, improved water quality, local cooling, and reduced soil erosion, which have been estimated to outweigh the costs of forest restoration (De Groot et al., 2013).
Table 2. Cost per unit of climate impact.
Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis
| Median | 23 |
Unit: 2023 US$/t CO₂‑eq , 100-yr basis
| Median | 83 |
We define a learning curve as falling costs with increased adoption. Reforestation has been practiced for many decades, and there is no evidence of a decrease in costs associated with increasing adoption. Therefore, there is no learning curve for this solution.
Speed of action refers to how quickly a climate solution physically affects the atmosphere after it is deployed. This is different from speed of deployment, which is the pace at which solutions are adopted.
At Project Drawdown, we define the speed of action for each climate solution as emergency brake, gradual, or delayed.
Restore Forests is a DELAYED climate solution. It works more slowly than gradual or emergency brake solutions. Delayed solutions can be robust climate solutions, but it’s important to recognize that they may not realize their full potential for some time.
Barriers to effective forest restoration include challenges around governance, financing, technical capacity (including seed and seedling supply), labor availability, and site-specific knowledge for initial restoration and long-term management (Brumberg et al., 2024; Chazdon et al., 2016; Chazdon et al., 2021; Fargione et al., 2021; Kroeger et al., 2025). Additional research and monitoring are needed to identify locally relevant restoration strategies, reduce barriers, and evaluate the success of restoration projects (Crouzeilles et al., 2019).
Forest restoration also faces challenges around permanence and additionality. Carbon stored in vegetation and soils through forest restoration can be lost to climatic and environmental stressors like wildfire, drought, heat waves, pests, or disease. Young, regenerating forests can be particularly susceptible to these types of stressors. Restored forests are also at risk of clearing (e.g., Piffer et al., 2022), so forest restoration must be coupled with long-term, effective protections against clearing. Additionality refers to the degree to which carbon uptake associated with forest restoration would have occurred in the absence of a project, policy, or incentive. Evaluating additionality is challenging in the context of natural forest regeneration, some of which simply arises from land abandonment without any intervention.
Data on current adoption of forest restoration are very limited. While there are extensive compilations of restoration pledges, estimates of the actual area being restored are noncentralized, typically rely on self-reporting without validation, do not have global coverage, use inconsistent definitions, often include establishment of plantations and agroforestry, and rarely separate estimates by ecosystem. Satellite-based data on tree cover gain are occasionally used as a proxy for restoration, but these do not differentiate among restoration, establishment of timber plantations, regeneration in the absence of human intervention, and plantation regrowth after timber harvest (Reytar et al., 2024). Moreover, they can fail to capture actual restoration areas (Begliomini & Brancalion, 2024).
Due to these limitations, we do not provide an estimate of the global area currently under forest restoration. However, we did compile current restoration estimates from three databases: The Mongabay Reforestation Catalog, The Restoration Initiative, and The Restoration Barometer. These databases are subject to the limitations discussed above. Assuming that there is no overlap in projects reported across these databases, including projects with an agroforestry component, and including projects across all ecosystems, we found 40.6 Mha currently being restored. Under more conservative assumptions, including removing projects with an agroforestry component, removing projects from countries that are reported across multiple databases, and discounting estimates to account for restoration in other ecosystems, we estimated that 9.2 Mha are currently being restored. These estimates provide context, but should not be interpreted as representative of the global area under forest restoration.
Despite extensive data on restoration pledges, comprehensive data on the actual implementation of restoration efforts are very limited and not often temporally resolved. The available data are insufficient to calculate an adoption trend for this solution.
We estimated that there are 96.8 Mha available for forest restoration, with 19.4 Mha in boreal regions, 19.0 Mha in temperate regions, 3.5 Mha in the subtropics, and 54.8 Mha in the tropics (Table 3a–e). In this solution, we only included cleared areas that were previously forests in the calculation of the adoption ceiling. To calculate the adoption ceiling, we started with a recent, conservative map of potential forest restoration areas (Fesenmeyer et al., 2025), which we masked to exclude areas classified as other ecosystems in other solutions (peatlands, grasslands and savannahs, and coastal wetlands). We then used a map of the cost-effectiveness of natural regeneration versus plantation establishment (Busch et al., 2024) to remove areas more suitable for plantation establishment from this solution, and assigned them instead to the Deploy Biomass Crops on Degraded Land solution.
Estimates of the area available for forest restoration vary widely due to differing definitions, ranging from 195 Mha (Fesenmeyer et al., 2025) to 900 Mha (Bastin et al., 2019), for example. Using base maps of forest restoration potential from Griscom et al. (2017) and Walker et al. (2022) gave an estimated global adoption ceiling of 426–434 Mha, after applying the same data processing approach to exclude other ecosystems and plantations.
Because of the constrained scope of this solution, we find a smaller adoption ceiling relative to other studies, which often include plantation establishment, agroforestry, densification of existing forests, afforestation on grasslands, restoration of forests on peat soils, reforestation of croplands, and other activities sometimes classified as forest restoration. We leveraged the map from Fesenmeyer et al. (2025) for the estimates reported in Table 3 because its scope aligns most closely with our relatively narrow definition of forest restoration, is one of the most recent studies, includes a review of 89 other forest restoration maps, and incorporates safeguards against conflicts between restoration and biodiversity loss, water scarcity, albedo effects, and land use. However, we note that this estimate is lower than other published estimates of potential forest restoration area and that differences across studies are driven by subjective judgments on land suitability for restoration.
Table 3. Adoption ceiling.
Unit: ha available for restoration
| Estimate | 19,400,000 |
Unit: ha available for restoration
| Estimate | 19,000,000 |
Unit: ha available for restoration
| Estimate | 3,500,000 |
Unit: ha available for restoration
| Estimate | 54,800,000 |
Unit: ha available for restoration
| Estimate | 96,800,000 |
We assigned an arbitrary achievable range of 50–75% of the adoption ceiling, equal to 48.4–72.6 Mha of forest restoration (Table 4a–e). Much of the adoption potential is located in the tropics, which we estimated to contain 27.4 Mha under the Achievable – Low Scenario and 41.1 Mha under the Achievable – High Scenario. We estimated similar achievable ranges of forest restoration area in boreal and temperate regions (9.7–14.6 Mha and 9.5–14.3 Mha, respectively), and an additional 1.7–2.6 Mha in subtropical regions.
Additional research is needed to determine more realistic estimates of the achievable adoption range, particularly differentiated across different restoration activities. National commitments to restoration, as with studies on the potential restoration area, include many activities that are beyond the scope of this solution, such as plantation establishment, agroforestry, and densification. Because of the inconsistency in definitions, we were unable to rely on restoration commitments to quantify the adoption achievable range. For context, the Global Restoration Commitments database (Mariappan & Zumbado, 2024) reports that, under the Rio Conventions, countries have committed to increasing forestland by 122 Mha, with an additional 154 Mha of commitments to restoring or improving forestland. Similarly, 210.1 Mha of land have been pledged for restoration across all ecosystems under the Bonn Challenge (Mariappan & Zumbado, 2024).
Table 4. Range of achievable adoption levels.
Unit: ha
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 9,700,000 |
| Achievable – high | 14,600,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 19,400,000 |
Unit: ha
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 9,500,000 |
| Achievable – high | 14,300,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 19,000,000 |
Unit: ha
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 1,700,000 |
| Achievable – high | 2,600,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 3,500,000 |
Unit: ha
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 27,400,000 |
| Achievable – high | 41,100,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 54,800,000 |
Unit: ha
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 48,400,000 |
| Achievable – high | 72,600,000 |
| Adoption ceiling | 96,800,000 |
We estimated that forest restoration could sequester 0.718 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr at the low-achievable adoption scenario, 1.077 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr at the high-achievable adoption scenario, and 1.437 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr at the adoption ceiling (Table 5a–e). Nearly 70% of the total climate impacts under these scenarios occur in tropical regions, where much of the current investment in restoration is focused.
Our climate impact estimates are lower than existing literature estimates due to our more constrained definition of this solution. Existing estimates also vary widely. For example, Cook-Patton et al. (2020) estimated that fully implemented national forest restoration commitments as of 2020 would take up 5.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported an economically feasible mitigation potential of 1.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Nabuurs et al., 2022), and Griscom et al. (2017) reported a technical mitigation potential of 10.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Recently, Wang et al. (2025) estimated an upper-end mitigation potential of 5.85 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (including afforestation and plantation establishment), with current commitments across all of these activities projected to take up 1.8 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Discrepancies between estimates are driven by the area considered suitable for restoration, types of restoration activities considered and their associated carbon uptake rates, and inclusion of cost constraints. Each of these individual estimates is also associated with substantial uncertainty, and further work is needed to standardize definitions of forest restoration and constrain the range of impact estimates.
Table 5. Climate impact at different levels of adoption.
Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 0.099 |
| Achievable – high | 0.149 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.198 |
Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 0.115 |
| Achievable – high | 0.173 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.230 |
Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 0.020 |
| Achievable – high | 0.031 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.041 |
Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 0.483 |
| Achievable – high | 0.725 |
| Adoption ceiling | 0.966 |
Unit: Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, 100-year basis
| Current adoption | NA |
| Achievable – low | 0.718 |
| Achievable – high | 1.077 |
| Adoption ceiling | 1.437 |
Forests help regulate local climate by reducing temperature extremes (Lawrence et al., 2022; Walton et al., 2016). Zhang et al. (2020) found the land surfaces of restored forests were 1–2 °C cooler than grasslands.
Forest restoration can improve biodiversity and health of the ecosystem, leading to more ecological resilience (DeGroot et al., 2013; Hua et al., 2022). Restored forests can intercept rainfall and attenuate flood risk during extreme rainfall events (Kabeja et al., 2020; Gardon et al., 2020). In some climates, certain reforestation methods could increase ecosystem resilience to wildfires (North et al., 2019).
For a description of the flood benefits, please refer to the “Extreme Weather Events” subsection.
Forest restoration may increase or decrease the ecosystem’s resilience to drought, depending on changes in factors such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water storage in vegetation (Andres et al., 2022; Sankey et al., 2020; Teo et al., 2022). For example, Teo et al. (2022) found that reforestation of degraded lands reduced the probability of experiencing extremely dry conditions in water-insecure regions of East Asia.
Forest restoration creates both temporary and permanent job opportunities, especially in rural areas (DeGroot et al., 2013). A study in Brazil found that restoration can generate about 0.42 jobs per hectare of forest undergoing restoration (Brancalion et al., 2022). Restoration of forests may also improve livelihoods and income opportunities based on the ecosystem services the forest provides. While these benefits vary substantially with household and community characteristics, in general, they include income diversification and the availability of food and fiber from forests (Adams et al., 2016). For example, in Burkina Faso, smallholders who restored lands through assisted regeneration diversified their income by harvesting resources such as fodder for livestock and small wildlife (Kumar et al., 2015).
Forests provide income and livelihoods for subsistence households and individuals (de Souza et al., 2016; Herrera et al., 2017; Naidoo et al., 2019). Forest restoration may improve food security for some households by improving incomes and livelihoods.
Reforestation may promote the health of nearby communities. Herrera et al. (2017) found that in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries, household members living downstream of higher tree cover had a lower probability of diarrheal disease. Biodiverse forests are linked to a reduced risk of animal-to-human infections because zoonotic hosts tend to be less abundant in less disturbed ecosystems (Keesing & Ostfeld, 2021; Reddington et al., 2015).
Indigenous peoples have a long history of caring for and shaping landscapes that are rich with biodiversity (Fletcher et al., 2021), and restoring the health and function of forests is essential for protecting indigenous cultural values and practices. Indigenous communities provide vital ecological functions for preserving landscape health, such as seed dispersal and predation (Bliege Bird & Nimmo, 2018). Indigenous peoples also have spiritual and cultural ties to their lands (Garnett et al., 2018). Restoration must be implemented using an equity-centered approach that reduces power imbalances between stakeholders, ensures people are not displaced, and involves local actors (Löfqvist et al., 2023).
Forests are home to a wide range of species and habitats and are essential for safeguarding biodiversity. Reforestation of native forests increases the biodiversity of an ecosystem relative to its previous cleared state (Brancalion et al., 2025; Hua et al., 2022). While many factors, such as the restoration method, time since restoration, and biophysical conditions, can impact restoration, studies of reforestation report increases in biodiversity and more species abundance after restoration, though the biodiversity typically remains below that of intact forests (Crouzeilles et al., 2016; Hua et al., 2022).
The impacts of reforestation on water quality vary based on factors such as geography and time since undergoing restoration (Dib et al., 2023). In general, forests act as natural water filters, maintaining and improving water quality (Dib et al., 2023; Melo et al., 2021). Restoration of forests is associated with improved water quality in streams compared with their previously degraded state (dos Reis Oliveira et al., 2025).
Forest restoration initiatives that are not responsive to local socioeconomic conditions risk displacing community land access and compromising local livelihoods. Effective forest restoration activities can be highly diverse, but must be targeted towards local environmental, sociopolitical, and economic conditions (Stanturf et al., 2019).
If forest restoration encroaches on agricultural lands, it can trigger clearing of forests elsewhere to replace lost agricultural production.
Planting trees in areas where they do not naturally occur, such as in grasslands and savannas, can alter hydrologic cycles and harm biodiversity (Veldman et al., 2015a; Veldman et al., 2015b). The estimates of potential forest restoration area that we use in this analysis are constrained to minimize these risks by including only land that was once forested and not allowing for forest restoration on croplands or in urban areas.
Forest restoration can improve the health and function of adjacent ecosystems that are being protected or restored.
These solutions are all suitable to implement on degraded land, and thus are in competition for the available degraded land.
ha under restoration
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ha under restoration
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Forest restoration can divert resources from other climate solutions, including protecting intact forests. Humans clear approximately 0.4% of forests annually (Curtis et al., 2018; Hansen et al., 2013; Sims et al., 2025), and halting further deforestation is an urgent priority with huge benefits for the climate, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services (see Protect Forests). While restoration provides carbon sequestration over a period of decades, preventing deforestation reduces emissions immediately and is typically more cost-effective. Restoration should therefore complement, rather than compete with, efforts to reduce deforestation.
Forest restoration can also decrease the albedo, or reflectivity, of Earth’s surface. This can increase temperatures as more of the sun’s energy is absorbed and reradiated as thermal energy. Albedo effects are most pronounced in boreal and dryland regions, where they reduce the net climate benefits of forest restoration (Hasler et al., 2024).
Consensus of effectiveness in enhancing carbon removal: High
Many scientific studies have evaluated the potential for forest restoration, consistently reporting that forest restoration has potential to provide substantial carbon removal. The effectiveness of forest restoration in terms of carbon uptake per hectare is highly spatially variable, with over 100-fold variability in uptake rates globally (Cook-Patton et al., 2020). These uptake rates have been extensively modeled, though estimates vary with respect to restoration activity (e.g., natural regeneration or plantation establishment) and carbon pools included (e.g., above-ground biomass only, above- and below-ground biomass, or total biomass and soil carbon). For forests undergoing natural regeneration, estimates of effectiveness ranged from 1.0 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr for biomass in boreal forests (Cook-Patton et al., 2020) to 18.8 t CO₂‑eq /ha/yr for biomass and soils in humid tropical forests in South America (Bernal et al., 2018).
Estimates of the potential climate impacts of forest restoration vary widely, with differences driven largely by variability in the estimates of land area available for forest restoration. The IPCC reported a global technical mitigation potential of 3.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr with an uncertainty range of 0.5–10.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, and an economically feasible mitigation potential of 1.6 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr with an uncertainty range of 0.5–3.0 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr (Nabuurs et al., 2022). Cook-Patton et al. (2020) estimated a maximum mitigation potential of 8.91 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr and a mitigation potential of 5.87 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr under existing national commitments. Roe et al. (2021) estimated a technical mitigation potential of 8.47 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr and a cost-effective mitigation potential of 1.53 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Griscom et al. (2017) reported a technical mitigation potential of 10.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, though the uncertainty estimates spanned 2.7–17.9 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr. Using a more conservative estimate of the area available for forest restoration than previous studies, Fesenmeyer et al. (2025) estimated that sequestration of 2.2 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr is feasible.
The quantitative results presented in this assessment synthesize findings from 16 global datasets supplemented by four national-scale studies. We recognize that geographic bias in the information underlying global data products creates bias and hope this work inspires research and data sharing on this topic in underrepresented regions.
Reduce Overfishing refers to the use of management actions that decrease fishing effort and therefore cut CO₂ emissions from fishing vessel fuel use on overfished stocks. Advantages include the potential to replenish depleted fish stocks, support ecosystem health, and enhance long-term food and job security. Disadvantages include the short-term reductions in fishing effort needed to allow systems to recover, which could impact local livelihoods and economies. While these interventions are not expected to reach globally meaningful levels of emissions reductions (>0.1 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr ), we conclude that Reduce Overfishing is “Worthwhile” with important ecosystem and social benefits.
Our analysis concludes that, despite its limited global impact for reducing emissions, Reduce Overfishing is a “Worthwhile” climate solution that has other important benefits for ecosystem health and long-term food security.
| Plausible | Could it work? | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ready | Is it ready? | Yes |
| Evidence | Are there data to evaluate it? | Yes |
| Effective | Does it consistently work? | Yes |
| Impact | Is it big enough to matter? | No |
| Risk | Is it risky or harmful? | No |
| Cost | Is it cheap? | ? |
Reducing overfishing lowers fuel use and CO₂ emissions from wild capture fishing vessels by reducing fishing effort on overfished stocks. This is typically achieved through management actions, such as seasonal closures, gear restrictions, and catch limits. Fishing effort, whether measured as the hours spent fishing or distance traveled, is generally proportional to fuel use. In addition to immediate reductions in emissions, reducing overfishing can allow overfished stocks to recover, which can lead to reduced future emissions since fuel use is lowered when fish are easier to catch and harvested sustainably.
Reducing fishing effort in locations with depleted and overfished wild fish stocks is expected to reduce emissions from fishing vessels. When stocks are overfished, fishers must exert additional effort, traveling further and/or searching longer to make the same catch, which increases fuel use and CO₂ emissions. Reducing overfishing through management actions, such as harvest control rules, gear restrictions, seasonal closures, stronger enforcement of existing regulations, and establishment of marine protected areas, can help fish stocks recover. Other policy tools, such as reducing harmful fuel subsidies that currently enable many otherwise unprofitable fishing fleets, are also likely to result in lower fuel use and CO₂ emissions. Healthy fish stocks can be caught with lower fishing effort, translating to future fuel savings and reduced CO₂ emissions. Global estimates suggest that reductions in overfishing could avoid up to 0.08 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr, representing almost half of the entire capture fisheries sector's annual emissions (0.18 Gt CO₂‑eq/yr ).
Currently, overfishing affects more than 35% of global wild marine fish stocks, increasing by 1%, on average, every year. Reducing overfishing not only lowers fuel use and emissions but also allows overfished stocks to recover. Healthy fish stocks strengthen marine food webs and contribute to ecosystem resilience and biodiversity. Overfishing has widespread consequences for diverse marine ecosystems, such as kelp forests, where declines in fish have led to overgrazing of the kelp by sea urchins. Over time, management interventions will also likely improve the sustainability and long-term reliability of coastal livelihoods and food security by supporting sustainable fisheries.
Policy and management tools for reducing overfishing and, by extension, fishing-related emissions come with some challenges. For instance, management measures or legal protections may not be fully effective if implementation or enforcement is weak. Management and enforcement can be particularly challenging on the high seas, where jurisdiction is limited or shared across many nations, and where illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing can be widespread. Even when effective, fish stock recovery can take years to decades, and the costs and trade-offs are unlikely to be evenly distributed across fishing fleets. In the short term, efforts to reduce overfishing could create economic challenges for small-scale fishers who may have fewer resources and less capacity to adapt to management restrictions.
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